Donald Trump has spent an awful lot of time whining about polling data recently, and that’s quickly caught on with his gullible, bleating voters. The mindless shrieking about the “rigged polling data” has become just intolerable, so it’s time to set things straight. Polling public opinion has been around for almost two-hundred years, with the first public opinion poll taken in 1824 in the election between Andrew Jackson and John Quincy Adams. In the intervening just shy of two centuries, there has been quite a bit of advancements in the methodology of political polling.
Here’s the bad news for Donald and his insufferably ignorant supporters: the polls aren’t wrong! They aren’t “over sampling” Democrats or independents. They aren’t asking “loaded questions“. They aren’t making anything up! They are asking exactly the same questions, in exactly the same order that they have been since Donald was bragging about how great he was doing in the polls. Trump’s supporters can go and check for themselves, but they won’t, because shrieking is much easier.
Look closely, and you’ll notice that Donald’s national polling today hasn’t improved from his polling then, either. Since locking up the nomination in May, Donald has only clocked in at 40% or more of the electorate 9 times out of 52 polls (four way polling). Meanwhile, Hillary has clocked in at 40% or more of the electorate 39 times out of 52 polls (four way polling). Even now, as Donald is supposedly “gaining on Hillary“, his poll numbers aren’t changing, hers are coming down, and then only vaguely. Of the last 13 polls, Hillary has polled over at least 40% in 12 of the polls, and even hit the magic 50% mark on a Monmouth poll taken 8/4-8/7. Donald has polled over at least 40% only two times in that same period.
Here’s the simple math: Hillary is at 42.9% of the electorate, though she will likely end up with closer to 47% of the total electorate. Johnson and Stein will likely pick up between 7% to 10% of votes. Evan McMullin will pick up around 5% of the electorate in states where he manages to even get on the ballot. Trump voters will need to dig deep, because I know that it’s been over 40 years since they’ve taken even rudimentary math classes. That leaves how much out of 100% for Donald?
100% – 47% = 53% – 7% = 46%.
You don’t even need to more than a sixth grade education to know that 46% is less than 47% everywhere in the United States. Notice, this doesn’t even include Evan McMullin’s share of the vote in November. All of this adds up to we’re going to have to get used to saying “Madame President“.
The saddest thing about this entire fiasco is this is not how it had to be. But, no, Trump’s supporters didn’t need us. Even Mike Huckabee, in his infinite wisdom, threw out the olive branch, when he said “If you can’t support Trump, get out of the Republican Party.” Way to unify the party, Huck. Next episode, Mike will undoubtedly demonstrate how to put out a house fire with nothing but a bucket of gasoline and three sticks of dynamite.
Depressed yet? It gets worse. There are Trump supporters that still won’t get it.
Be brave. Be free.
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