libertyisftw – Liberty is For The Win

Lame Duck Trump

It’s time for Americans to accept a simple fact: Donald Trump is a lame duck president.

After his reelection in November 2006, George W. Bush’s presidency remained constantly embattled over the US occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan. His approval numbers dropped below 50% in mid-2005, beginning a long and painful slide throughout his second term as president. Things did not get really bad until 2007, when the economy, which had until that point been more or less expanding, began to show serious and deep systemic weakness.

As the subprime mortgage crisis inserted itself with a crash into the American daily lexicon, Bush’s approval numbers dropped below 30% for the first time in the middle of 2007. By 2008, only 25% of Americans approved of Bush’s job performance, as grim casualty numbers continued to roll out of Iraq coupled with hemorrhaging job numbers in the U.S. economy.

Without the support of increasingly timid Congressional Republicans fighting for their political lives in the wake of the president’s collapsing popularity, George W. Bush’s legislative agenda became increasingly reactive, easily undermined by the Democratic controlled Congress. In every sense, George W. Bush spent more than half of his final presidential term as an ineffective lame duck long before the 2008 elections.

“The government sometimes … adopts
through passion what reason would
reject; at other times it makes the
animosity of the nation subservient
to projects of hostility instigated by
pride, ambition, and other sinister
and pernicious motives. The peace
often, sometimes perhaps the liberty,
of nations, has been the victim.”
-George Washington-

Since his inauguration, the highest Donald Trump’s approval has been was 46%, four days into his presidency. His approval numbers dipped briefly and rose again to 45%, on March 11th. His popularity has slid inexorably downward since, with his approval number popping above 40% for the last time on June 22nd, almost 2 full months ago. In the last week of polling (8/7/2017-8/14/2017), Trump’s approval numbers have sunk to between 34% and 37%, and there’s no indication of them improving.

Trump is now in the same situation George W. Bush found himself in 2007. While Bush accomplished many of his campaign promises during his first term, he still had much unfinished business. He had planned on serious regulation reform, on making his 2003 tax reform permanent, on putting an end to the inheritance tax, and on other conservative platform agendas. With the support of just 1 out of every 3 Americans, however, Bush’s agenda were dead on arrival in Congress.

With only 34% of Americans supporting his agenda, how exactly do Republicans expect Trump to achieve now what he could not when he was at 45% approval? It’s time for Americans to accept a simple fact: Donald Trump is a lame duck president. Trump has no more chance of getting his political agenda through Congress now than George W. Bush did 10 years ago. There is only one sensible recourse at this point.

The interests of the nation demand a change in leadership, and, to be frank, a Pence presidency couldn’t possibly be any worse than the circus that Trump’s presidency has devolved into. Whether it be through resignation, impeachment, or declaring him unfit via the 25th Amendment, cut the cord.

Liberty is For The Win!

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How to Fail at Being Conservative…

It’s past time to separate the conservative wheat from the putrid chaff of Nationalism.

Though there may be many disagreements about what qualifies someone to be an American conservative, there can be no disagreement on what would disqualify someone as a conservative. The events in Charlottesville have made it ever clearer that the Republican Party and the rise of Nationalism have blurred the ideological lines that were once so clear. It’s past time to separate the conservative wheat from the putrid chaff of Nationalism.

So how does one fail to be conservative?

1] Support any form of government interference in the market.

Whether that be direct subsidization, tax rebates, arbitrary regulation, or contract constraints. The use of capital and resources should be left to the private decisions of owners and consumers, not to the government bureaucrats or elected politicians, no matter how well meaning, yes, even social programs designed to feed the hungry, cover the medical costs of the elderly, or subsidize the mortgages of the poor.

Support of government interference in the market disqualifies someone as being conservative, because government control or ownership of market enterprise that entails “taking from some based on ability and giving to others based on their need” (Karl Marx) has a name: Socialism. Socialism isn’t Conservatism.

2] Support any form of government interference in foreign nations.

Whether it be a military intervention, a coalition police action, or even just foreign subsidies, without a demonstrable and imminent national security interest that only be achieved through a committed alliance with another nation, the expense of the blood and treasure of the people of the United States of America is nothing short of murder and theft. Nation states must stand on their own, and, short of impending future threat to the sovereignty of the United States, there is no justification for possibly “entangling alliances” (George Washington).

Support of government interference in foreign nations disqualifies someone as being conservative because aggressive government interference in foreign powers has a name: Imperialism. Imperialism isn’t Conservatism.

3] Support any form of government discrimination for or against any individuals.

Whether it be affirmative action quotas or open discrimination based on sex or race, a just government should treat all individuals according to a single standard applied equally to all, with no differences in criminal codes among any group, be it race, sex, creed, or any other consideration. Our society should be based on “Liberty and Justice for all” (Francis Bellamy), and “all” in this case is literally everyone within the territorial bounds of our nation and, where applicable, for anyone beyond as well.

Support of government discrimination against any individuals disqualifies someone as being conservative because discrimination for or against any individuals has many names: Sexism, Racism, Nativism, etc. None of them are Conservatism.

“If the great American people will only keep their temper, on both sides of the line, the troubles will come to an end, and the question which now distracts the country will be settled just as surely as all other difficulties of like character which have originated in this government have been adjusted.”
-Abraham Lincoln-

Let’s make this so clear that even Trump supporters might be able to understand. The “Carrier deal”, any kind of “repatriation tax”, or any tariff on foreign goods represent government interference in the market. Any military intervention in Syria, Venezuela, or any other country that doesn’t pose an imminent threat to American lives would represent interference in foreign nations. Any policy designed to advantage citizens over non-citizens, bans individuals based on religious belief, or support hate groups actively inciting violence against their countrymen would qualify as discrimination for or against individuals.

In every possible way, Trumpism is entirely inconsistent with the necessary and proper purpose of government to secure the Lives, Liberties, and Properties of all people living honestly within the boundaries of the United States. The core precepts of the MAGA movement in no way resembles Conservatism as espoused by Reagan, Buckley, or the Founding Fathers. To support Trumpism is to betray conservatism in every way.

Liberty is For The Win!

A Short Word: Coming to America

America is just as much about what you bring to her as what she brings to you.

The damp chill of the long and rainy night had worked its way deep into the ship. Young children clung to their parents for warmth, who in turn slept on bags filled with their family’s earthly belongings. Outside, the thick fog that clung to the ocean waves all night loosened its icy grip in the morning hours in the last of the drizzling rain. Escaping the cramped and dark spaces below deck, three figures walked onto the deck wrapped in layers of worn clothes and long coats.

The father stooped and picked up his young daughter in his arms then fell into step beside his elderly father. They picked their way along the length of the ship, talking quietly about home, their journey, and what’s to become of them. At the bow of the ship, the three joined the growing press of people peering westward through the misty distance toward a hazy and irregular horizon. The city skyline rose out of the sea, a dark and ominous shape.

The young girl pointed at the glint of gold in the middle of the harbor and watched in thoughtful silence as the statue of a crowned woman holding a golden torch high in the air grew steadily on the horizon. She looked up at her grandfather and the tears streaming down his cheeks. She whispered to her father, “Pa-pa, who is that lady?”

He smiled and replied, “She is America, my angel.”

“If we lose freedom here, there is no place to escape to.
This is the last stand on earth.”
-Ronald Reagan-

America’s relationship with the rest of the world will always be as much a product of our often tumultuous political climate as it is the practical realities of the chaotic world beyond our borders. The Founding Fathers understood that the forms and customs of their young nation were changing, even as they were being founded, and hoped the future generations would keep the virtues (liberalism, rationalism, and faith) of the old world while abandoning its vices (tyranny, prejudice, and superstition).

While our track record in this regard has been spotty, especially recently, the experiment and evolution of Americanism continues. The fundamental truth of our national identity is as true today as it was one and two hundred years ago: America is just as much about what you bring to her as what she brings to you. As Americans, we must embrace this even as we try to maintain a cultural homeostasis that continues to pursue a better more liberal, rational, and faithful society.

Tyranny, whether it pretend to be benevolent welfare state or openly malevolent dictatorship, remains the greatest threat to our experiment in self government. Prejudice, whether it be in the name of nationalism or openly ethnocentric nativism, is the greatest threat to our experiment in rationalism. And superstition, whether it ape a justified defensiveness or devolves into open religious bigotry, is the greatest threat to our experiment in philosophical pluralism.

America must remain free.

Liberty is For The Win!

A Short Word: Why I am NeverTrump

For the sake of posterity, here are seventeen reasons that I proudly remain #NeverTrump.

After an emotionally taxing two years, with new reasons to oppose Donald Trump’s presidency coming on an almost daily basis, it’s sometimes hard to remember why it is I personally oppose the man and everything that he stands for. For the sake of posterity, here are seventeen reasons that I proudly remain #NeverTrump.

He has used the advantage of his political connections to transgress against the natural rights of people around the world.
He willfully provided material support to Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid, among many others, even while they worked to undermine the personal liberties of his fellow Americans.
He willfully misrepresented the nature and extent of the many and conspicuous failures of most of his business ventures, as well as overstated the nature and value of his “hundreds of businesses” for the sole purpose of exaggerating his net worth.
He regularly says and writes things he knows to be false, about himself, about his colleagues, and, especially, about his critics.
He has never openly and forcefully rejected the putrid thread of White Nationalism that infests his political base and embraces many of their nativist political agendas.
He has instigated hatred and provoked violence among his supporters against both immigrants and other Americans.
He has a history of vulgarity and general impropriety with women, married and otherwise, famously bragging about sexually harassing and assaulting women.
He is a fantastically bad judge of character, surrounding himself with who have later been forced to resign over embarrassing scandals, including physical assault of a female reporter, undisclosed contacts with a hostile foreign power, gross vulgarity unbefitting their office, and general incompetence.
He has an unseemly and inexhaustible infatuation with himself, causing him to constantly talking about himself at the least appropriate times and feeding his fundamental disrespect for the office.
He has repeatedly acted with duplicity toward men and women in his service, publicly praising them, before just as publicly cowardly naming and shaming these Americans from behind his Twitter account.
He has failed to deliver on core promises to the American people, such as naming China a currency manipulator and building a wall between the US and Mexico.
He has failed to release his tax returns after promising to do so repeatedly in the two years since announcing his intent to run for the office that he now holds.
He abuses the power and privilege of the Office of President, using executive orders to fake achieving agenda items he has failed to negotiate with Congress.
He publicly attacked institutions of our Constitutional Republic, undermining both the credibility and coequality of the Legislative and Judiciary branches.
He habitually puts politics before professionalism, posturing himself as a victim of the very system of laws and justice that he is sworn to uphold.
He has appointed his family and life long friends to high office in direct violation of federal anti-nepotism laws and common decency.
Finally, he conspicuously and repeatedly disregards the rule of law and seeks to undermine the independence of our justice system, in direct contradiction of his oath to uphold and defend the Constitution of the United States of America.

It is the sacred duty of every man and woman who loves Liberty to stand against such an demonstrably unworthy politician. We cannot claim to deserve better when we do not reject worse.

Liberty is For The Win!

A Short Word: Paranoia vs Patriotism

It does not matter if you are tired of the Left’s accusations of racism and bigotry, if those accusations turn out to be true.

If you pay almost any attention to the rhetoric coming from the rank and file within the pro-Trump camp, it won’t be long before you’ll hear the unmistakable reactionary chords of ethnocentric angst that runs deep in the psychology of their movement. Even disregarding the open bigotry of the alt-right movement’s totally unhinged agitators, there is still so much paranoid xenophobia couched in the MAGA movement.

Just listen to the rank and file talk about the “assault on western civilization” or whine about the “white genocide” of European nations “overrun by immigrants“. They are pro “Muslim ban“, anti “foreign trade“, and loudly “America First“, using buzzwords, such as “globalism” and “anti-establishment“, that can mean literally anything depending on the context. They’ll viciously attack anyone that dares call their political posturing what it very clearly is: bigotry.

Make no mistake, when some MAGA supporter on whatever social media platform says “globalist“, there’s a better than 50% chance they mean “Jew“. When they say “immigrant“, they very often really mean “non-white“. This isn’t some paranoid Leftist conspiracy, either, because even when these people are unmasked, other “innocent” MAGA supporters will do less than nothing to condemn this behavior. This fact alone convicts the entire Trump movement.

It does not matter if you are tired of the Left’s accusations of racism and bigotry, if those accusations turn out to be true.

“Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere.”
-Martin Luther King, Jr.-

This isn’t to say that the underlying fears and anxiety that have engendered MAGA’s lunacy are completely unfounded. One need only look at the terrorist attacks of 9/11/2001, the Boston Marathon bombing, the murder of police officers by radicalized Black militants, the shooting death of Kathryn Steinle by an Mexican national illegally in the country, or, more recently, the radicalized Leftist gunman that open fired on unarmed Congressmen in Alexandria, VA to see that there are very real threats all around us.

Unfortunately, while the rank and file MAGA voter will say they are merely interested in the “defense of western civilization“, “protecting American jobs“, and enforcing the “rule of law“, the Nationalist policy that results always seems to end up being the persecution of “the other“. They criminalize the desperation of men and women seeking only an honest day’s work. They subject millions of Muslim Americans to prejudice and suspicion. They attack business men and women for simply trying to do what is necessary to stay competitive in a global marketplace.

All the while, Trump’s supporters have missed one fundamental fact. The necessary and proper role of American government has never been to defend any civilization, or to protect anyone’s jobs, or even to enforce the rule of law (keep breathing and keep reading). In America, “governments are instituted among Men” in order “to secure these rights (Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness)“, and while rule of law is absolutely necessary to secure public Liberty, the creation and enforcement of unjust laws that transgress on the Liberties of others is tyranny!

Never forget, the solemn duty of all Patriots is to defend the Liberties of all people.

Liberty is For The Win!

In The Shadow of the Russian Bear

Abandoning a core tenet of western civilization is the opposite of conservatism.

Some things are abundantly clear now. First, Donald Trump lied about the contacts between his campaign staff and Russian government. Second, Donald Trump, Jr. repeatedly lied about a meeting he had with individuals with curious ties to the Russian government. Third, the entire MAGA movement position that the Russian collusion story being a fallacious story concocted by the media created for the sole purpose of discrediting the president is itself a fallacious story concocted by the president for the sole purpose of discrediting the media.

I am not going to pretend to know the details of any of these meetings, or, with any certainty, that they were necessarily dubious in intent. However, after the release of the emails by Donald Trump, Jr. of his correspondence with and the ever changing inconsistent story regarding first even the existence of the meeting, then the nature of the meaning, and even how many people attended the meaning, no rational person can continue to argue that the Trump White House is honest.

The driving force of the Make America Great Again movement was, at least allegedly, a reaction to the perceived rampant dishonesty from the Democratic administration of Barack Obama and the complicit media that, for eight years, strained the credulity of Americans by shoving one bad policy after another onto the backs of the American people while the media simply abandoned any pretense of objectivity or even reality by outright failing to report on stories that were inconsistent with the political needs of the Democratic party.

Americans were simply tired of being lied to, either openly or by simple omission.

“You lie!“
-Joe Wilson-

Then along came Donald Trump. In plain, smash mouth rhetoric, Donald Trump waded into the front, hitting back at the partisan media. He called them out on their lies, usually on issues where the media was being obviously deceitful with a clear political agenda, but also in defense of politically ridiculous assertions (such as the matter of Obama’s birth certificate) that the media rightfully pushed back against him.

Among the core principles of “western civilization” (something the MAGA set loudly and often hysterically claim to be staunch defenders of) is that of devotion to personal integrity. This devotion to integrity is, as I just demonstrated, the very reason many Americans were so angry in the first place. When Harry Reid stood on the Senate floor, abusing the privileges of speech within the rules of the Senate and the Constitution, and falsely accused Mitt Romney of tax evasion, Conservatives were outraged because his statements were lies!

When Obama promised that Americans would pay an average of $2500 less a year on premiums, that they could keep their doctors, that if they liked their plan, they could keep their plan, Conservatives were outraged, because they knew that basic economic showed that insurance companies could not offer more services to more people for less cost. When MSNBC purposefully pushed the narrative that “white racists” were threatening violence against Barack Obama, because they some were carrying guns to a protest, Conservatives were justifiably offended when it turned out that the “racist gun toting white protester” turned out to be a Black conservative gun rights advocate.

The shameless dishonesty of these Democratic Leaders and a complicit media created the very political wave that would lead to Trump’s electoral victory.

“To the best of my knowledge no person that
I deal with [has anything to do with Russia].”
-Donald Trump-

Now that Trump is the president, however, and Republicans control Congress, the same people who once howled in outrage over the bald faced lies of their political opponents now not only tolerate exactly the same bald faced dishonesty from Donald Trump and his brood of conspirators, Fox News, Sean Hannity, Rush Limbaugh, Ann Coulter, Breitbart, Info Wars (which should have no more credibility than the side show National Enquirer), they perpetuate the lies.

Even while Trump’s eldest son reveals that everyone around Trump, including high up in his campaign had regular dealings with Russian officials, the MAGA movement proves that it cares even less about the devotion to personal integrity than the radical left they oppose. Abandoning a core tenet of western civilization is the opposite of conservatism. It is a betrayal of it. None that pursue a policy based on deceit and propaganda can be counted among patriots. Not now. Not ever.

Liberty is For The Win!

The Economics Quarterly: 2017Q2

GDP GROWTH DATA

The GDP Growth Rate for 2017 Quarter 1 was officially 1.4%, considerably below the 15-year mean, which includes the 2007-2008 recession that makes that number considerably easier to beat. The 4-year trend from 2013 through Quarter 1 of this year continues to show a downward trend, though 2013 and 2014 were the strongest economic years of Obama’s 8 years in office, and the economy has cooled off considerably since. The Q1 number missed the forecasted number of 2.5% considerably, which proved my concern that poor initial job numbers for March, which have since been revised down even further to 50,000, reflected slower GDP growth in Q1.

GDP Growth Rate – 15-Year (1/1/2002-7/7/2017)

GDP Growth Rate – 4-Year Trend (7/1/2013-7/7/2017)

FEDERAL FUNDS RATE DATA

In June, the Federal Reserve announced yet another interest rate hike, bringing the Federal Funds Rate to 1.25%. While still at a historically low level, far below its peak of 5.25% in 2006-2007, and well below the 15-year mean, the Fed seem intent on driving up the Funds Rate as quickly as they can while somewhat positive trends continue. The Interbank Rate is at 1.30%, which is also pretty well below the 15-year mean and has been creeping upward since early 2016.

Federal Funds Rate Rate – 15-Year (1/1/2002-7/7/2017)

Interbank Loan Rate – 15-Year (1/1/2002-7/7/2017)

INFLATION RATE DATA

Inflation has cooled down to 1.9% from its high of 2.7% in February and is back below the 15-year mean. Though it remains above the mean since January 2016 (not shown), the trend downward could reflect either a trend down in the market itself or the market’s reaction to a tightening money supply, however, the Fed Funds rate still being very low makes the latter highly unlikely. Regardless, the rate is still on an upward trend since at least 2015.

Inflation Rate – 15-Year (1/1/2002-7/7/2017)

CAPITAL GOODS NEW ORDERS (Non-Defense) DATA

New Orders of capital goods remains above the 15-year mean, but decreased in March in a reflection of the slowdown in the economy in Q1. There has been an upward trend since mid 2016, however, fairly in line with the up tick in Labor Force Participation.

Capital Goods New Orders – 15-Year (1/1/2002-7/7/2017)

JOB NUMBER DATA

The jobs numbers for 2017 Quarter 1 totaled 498,000 net jobs, down from the initial Q1 estimate of 533,000, compared to 443,000 net jobs in 2016 Quarter 4 and 588,000 jobs in 2016 Quarter 1, so job numbers in Q1 were a mixed signal. The job numbers for 2017 Quarter 2 totaled 581,000, as of the preliminary numbers for just released yesterday. Presently, Q2 seems to be on track to be slightly below the 4-year average of 210,000 monthly jobs, with the 150,000 May numbers dragging it down, even though the 222,000 jobs (preliminary) in June are on the mark for the 4-year median.

Job Numbers – 4-Year (1/1/2013-7/7/2017)

LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE DATA

The Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) continues to a recent positive trend since April 2015 (not graphed), climbing to 62.8% in June. The LFPR remains at historic lows, however, far below the 15-year mean, with no indication of any increases in the near future. The 4-year trend remains negative with very slow recovery.

Labor Force Participation Rate – 15-Year (1/1/2002-7/7/2017)

Labor Force Participation Rate – 4-Year (4/1/2013-7/7/2017)

GOVERNMENT DEBT TO GDP DATA

Finally, the National Debt to GDP ratio climbed to 106.10% at the end of 2016. There isn’t any data from 2017, but we should have some indication by the next Economics Quarterly for the first part of this year. Most people reading this will understand what this means, for those that don’t, however, presently the federal debt load is more than all of the wealth that the entire US economy generates in a year. This does not include future obligations (such as Medicare and Social Security).

Debt to GDP – 4-Year (4/1/2013-7/7/2017)

THE READ

The read from the previous Economics Quarterly was bearish, and I remain so. The Q1 GDP Growth was considerably lower than the market was predicting, but was in line with a market pumping its brakes through March. Republicans suggest that a lot of this slow down was from inclement weather in the North East, but there really wasn’t that significant an interruption of the economy, having caused days of disruption, not weeks. The biggest news of March was the failure of the GOP American Health Care Act “Repeal & Replace” legislation.

More than a few economic hopes were pinned on a Republican Party that’s done nothing but promise “Repeal” for 7 years, and their failure to overcome their own party’s concerns threw cold water on a lot of people’s expectations. Since then, of course, the House finally did push through a slightly modified plan, moving the ball to the Senate where partisan obstacles are even higher. With the Senate plan falling apart in the last week, Republicans are now forced to figure out a new direction.

GDP Growth in Quarter 2 will be stronger than in Quarter 1, but don’t look for any doors to be blown off the hinges. A GDP number of 2.5% to 3.0% is possible by seems very unlikely given other factors in the economy. The rising Fed Funds Rate will cool off the money supply some. The Inflation Rate has cooled down 3 months in a row, and the Core Inflation Rate (not graphed) has cooled off 4 months in a row. Coupled with both a drop in orders of Capital Goods and passable Job Numbers, including a relatively bland number in May, all the stumbling blocks are in place for a brief to moderate correction.

The economy has been expanding for about 5 to 6 years, depending on where the recovery is scored. I believe that ObamaCare is keeping the economy from heating up too much, acting as a heavy tax on the economy, but the steep increase in the Inflation Rate that began in late 2014, early 2015, is pushing is sign that the economy is having trouble finding places to move capital effectively. That indicates that a pull back is imminent, because the market is over priced right now. I believe that this, more so than the very moderate Inflation Rate, is driving the Fed to push up the Federal Funds Rate at such an unusually steep rate.

That’s my read. Be cautious.

One more thing, a lot of noise has been made in the news lately from Republicans about numbers they’ve randomly taken from the political cycle that they flaunt without any benefit of context. I’ll focus on two points that I found extra ridiculous. First, a few weeks ago, Republicans were flaunting “historically low” unemployment number among Black Americans, as if Donald Trump’s policies were the direct cause. This is ludicrous. Below is the unemployment rate among Blacks or African Americans for the last 10 years. Unemployment has clearly and steadily been decreasing in the Black community for years. Let’s celebrate when Black unemployment is the same as White unemployment.

Second, Republicans recently shared an article that celebrated a $22 Million cut to the Federal Budget, negotiated under the most recent Omnibus budget deal that passed Congress and was signed by President Trump in early May. To get an idea of how ridiculous touting this is, let’s compare the $22 Million cut to the 2016 budget. The 2016 budget was $3.54 Trillion, with a budget deficit of $552 Billion. That $22 Million cut represents a total of 0.000006214689265536723% cut to the 2016 budget. How much did the Republicans and Democrats cut? 0%. Nothing.

The only thing that’s clear about federal budget right now is that no one in Washington is taking the federal budget seriously. That there are people actually gullible enough to believe that $22 Million represents a significant portion of the budget is simply embarrassing and demonstrates just how uneducated in matters of the economy and the federal budget the American populace is.

This has been the Liberty Is For The Win Economic Quarterly. Catch you all in a few months.

Liberty is For The Win!

August 2017
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GDP GROWTH DATA

FEDERAL FUNDS RATE DATA

INFLATION RATE DATA

CAPITAL GOODS NEW ORDERS (Non-Defense) DATA

JOB NUMBER DATA

LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE DATA

GOVERNMENT DEBT TO GDP DATA

THE READ

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