The Economy in Context: November 2018

Americans should remain skeptical of the rosy picture painted by the latest jobs report, because fundamental problems in the economy remain.

The Economics Quarterly: October 2018

There are a lot of things that look good in the last few quarters, and growth remains solid, particularly if the 3.5% preliminary GDP growth rate holds through revisions, but there are still some nagging doubts that won't go away.

The End Of The Bad Old Days

While the economy continues to churn along even into 2018, well beyond what I had predicted, two recent events indicate that the gravy train may finally be coming to a long overdue halt.

The Economy in Context: October 2018

The current administration's economy has only outperformed the average performance of the previous administration (post recession) eight months out of the last twenty-one months, or roughly one-third of the time.

The Economy in Context: August 2018

Despite numerous deregulation victories and his incessant bragging in 2016, Trump's economy has created more jobs than Obama's second term (post recession) economy only 7 out of the last 20 months.

The Economy In Context: July 2018

At 157,000 net jobs created, the preliminary numbers in the July Jobs Report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics came in well below the 190,000 jobs expected by market watchers, and well below the average established during Obama's second term.

The Economics Quarterly: July 2018

While the quarterly GDP growth rate hasn't been below 2.0% since the first quarter of 2017, it also hasn't been above 5.0% since the second quarter of 2014, and it's a long way from the 7.0% rate in the third quarter of 2003.

Trump’s Labor Farce Problem

If the labor force participation rate were still at its peak (roughly around 67%), roughly 10 million more Americans, that's the entire population of New York City plus an additional 1.5 million people, would still be in the labor force.

The Economy in Context: May Jobs Report

It seems to me that it's hard for Trump to be making America "great" again, if his economy is under-performing Obama's economy.

Dow Jones Loses Third of Gains since 2017

As of yesterday, the DJI has only 24.64% of its gains since that date, representing a loss of roughly a third of its gains.

Piercing the Republican Propaganda

The Republican pundit class is lying right into our faces, pouring falsehoods and delusions right onto the heads of the tens of millions of Americans so desperate to believe in the infallibility of their political movement that they believe everything that they're told.

The Economics Quarterly: April 2018

The economy continues to roll ahead however isn't without blemishes.

The Economic Pulse

The main barrier to hiring an employee isn’t tax policy, regulatory policy, or even a recession...

The Economics Quarterly: 2017Q4

By all objective measures, the economy generated fewer jobs in 2017 than the previous 3 years. This isn't political punditry, it's merely a statement of fact.

The Economics Quarterly: 2017Q3

With the end of easy money, and the Federal Reserve looking to balance their books, there may be a tightening of capital in the very near future as that $4.5 trillion tab gets cleared.

The Economics Quarterly: 2017Q2

GDP GROWTH DATA The GDP Growth Rate for 2017 Quarter 1 was officially 1.4%, considerably below the 15-year mean, which includes the 2007-2008 recession that makes that number considerably easier to beat. The 4-year trend from 2013 through Quarter 1 of this year continues to show a downward trend, though 2013 and 2014 were the... Continue Reading →

The Economics Quarterly: 2017Q1

The economy has been moving upward since about 2015, but, from a purely political standpoint, much of this growth could be attributed to the general impression that the political winds were going to change in Washington.

Economic Speed Round: December 2016

The latest helping of government data on jobs and the economy are remarkably rosy, but there are more than a few dark clouds surrounding the silver linings.

Economics Speed Round: November 2016

As we look toward the end of the year and the 4th Quarter, the change in political leadership could change the economic landscape, depending on how quickly the Congress and White House can enact whatever policy they plan on pushing forward.

Economics Speed Round: October 2016

With the election upcoming, we've no choice but to wait and see if the bubble economy bursts before or after the election.

Economics Speed Round: September 2016

Coupled with a broad base slow down in production and construction, we still appear on track for a recession starting in 3rd quarter or 4th quarter 2016, though it does not appear to be a traditional recession.

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