The Economy in Context: March 2019

The only thing keeping the United States economy out of a significant recession have been low interest rates...

The Economics Quarterly: February 2019

It is obvious something is holding the economy back, but no one is dealing with the underlying problem.

The Economy in Context: February 2019

Trade talks with China remain a wild card that can stave off an economic slowdown in 2019, or, if things go south in trade negotiations, take the economy of both countries down with it.

What’s the Federal Funds Rate Telling Us?

There are some fairly unusual things about the economy in the Trump Era, that are reminiscent, albeit opposite, of the Carter Era.

The Economy in Context: January 2019

As rosy as the economic data seems, there's still some pretty serious questions hanging over this economy.

No, Precious Metals Aren’t the Answer

How do you operate a national economy, let alone the global economy, on a commodity so small that an errant box fan could conceivably wipe out an individual's wealth?

A Short Word: Trump’s Fed Folly

Donald Trump whined about the Federal Reserve doing what it has to do to cut off rising inflation rates...

The Economy in Context: December 2018

[T]he president's misbegotten policies are presently the biggest factors in the market today.

Gauging Trump’s Jobs Facade

The fact that so many Americans are not participating in the labor force today, a problem that exploded under Obama, so he bears responsibility, is the single largest problem facing America today, and Trump and his supporters never talk about it.

The Economy in Context: November 2018

Americans should remain skeptical of the rosy picture painted by the latest jobs report, because fundamental problems in the economy remain.

The Economics Quarterly: October 2018

There are a lot of things that look good in the last few quarters, and growth remains solid, particularly if the 3.5% preliminary GDP growth rate holds through revisions, but there are still some nagging doubts that won't go away.

The End Of The Bad Old Days

While the economy continues to churn along even into 2018, well beyond what I had predicted, two recent events indicate that the gravy train may finally be coming to a long overdue halt.

The Economy in Context: October 2018

The current administration's economy has only outperformed the average performance of the previous administration (post recession) eight months out of the last twenty-one months, or roughly one-third of the time.

The Economy in Context: August 2018

Despite numerous deregulation victories and his incessant bragging in 2016, Trump's economy has created more jobs than Obama's second term (post recession) economy only 7 out of the last 20 months.

The Economy In Context: July 2018

At 157,000 net jobs created, the preliminary numbers in the July Jobs Report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics came in well below the 190,000 jobs expected by market watchers, and well below the average established during Obama's second term.

The Economics Quarterly: July 2018

While the quarterly GDP growth rate hasn't been below 2.0% since the first quarter of 2017, it also hasn't been above 5.0% since the second quarter of 2014, and it's a long way from the 7.0% rate in the third quarter of 2003.

Trump’s Labor Farce Problem

If the labor force participation rate were still at its peak (roughly around 67%), roughly 10 million more Americans, that's the entire population of New York City plus an additional 1.5 million people, would still be in the labor force.

The Economy in Context: May Jobs Report

It seems to me that it's hard for Trump to be making America "great" again, if his economy is under-performing Obama's economy.

Dow Jones Loses Third of Gains since 2017

As of yesterday, the DJI has only 24.64% of its gains since that date, representing a loss of roughly a third of its gains.

Piercing the Republican Propaganda

The Republican pundit class is lying right into our faces, pouring falsehoods and delusions right onto the heads of the tens of millions of Americans so desperate to believe in the infallibility of their political movement that they believe everything that they're told.

The Economics Quarterly: April 2018

The economy continues to roll ahead however isn't without blemishes.

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