“Leadership is not about the next election, it’s about the next generation.”
Earlier this month, Pew Research Center released their latest data on political party membership in the United States focusing on the generation gaps in American politics. What they’ve found is the Republican Party, after reversing years of positive trends, is fantastically doomed in November. To understand just how bad things really are, we have to rewind a bit to 2006, halfway through George W. Bush‘s second term and the first year of data with the Millennials. At that time, only 33% of Millennials were likely to vote Republican, while over 56% of their cohorts were likely to vote for Democrats, for a staggering deficit of 23 points.
In 2006, Generation X voters leaned 41% for Republicans, with a margin of 5 points in favor of the Democrats. The Baby Boomers leaned only 40% for Republicans, with a margin of 10 points for the Democrats. And the Silent Generation leaned 40% for Republicans, with a margin of 10 points for the Democrats. With the growing unpopularity of the Iraq War (2003-2011) and the continuing political fallout after Hurricane Katrina (2005), and Republicans paid for it by losing control of both chambers of Congress and, with the mortgage crisis tearing the economy apart, the presidency in 2008.
Just eight years later, however, in 2014, thanks to several missteps by Obama and the Democratic Party, several consecutive years of chaos in the House and Senate, terrorists attacks in the streets of the United States, a foreign policy mishandling of the Arab Spring in 2010 and 2011, an unresponsive economy which should have been well into recovery, and growing public concern over ObamaCare, Republicans surged back to a substantial political presence. By 2014, Republicans took a lead of 51% among the now aging Silent Generation, a solid 45% among Baby Boomers with only a small 3 point deficit, lost a little ground among Generation X, falling to 41% with a 10 point deficit, and gained 8 points among Millennials, hitting 41% and with deficit of only 9 points.
The conservative wave was rising. The message was getting through like never before. Then, in 2015, Donald Trump came down his golden escalator and, in front of a crowd of paid actors, announced he was running for president.
“They [the Democrats] will crawl over broken glass in November to vote.”
In less than 4 years, the Republicans destroyed what it’d taken them 8 years to build. Between 2014 and 2018, support among Millennials plummeted 12 points, from 41% to 29%, 2 full points below where Republicans started just 12 years ago, and Republicans turned a 9 point deficit into a 33 point deficit in 2018, the vast majority of that deficit being created since 2016. With the aging population of Baby Boomers and the Silent Generation starting to die off, Millennials are expected to overtake the Baby Boomers as the largest generation as early as next year.
One thing is for certain, 2018 is going to be a political blood bath that will make the 2006 mid-term elections look like a playground scuffle. Ted Cruz observed at a Republican Party fundraiser that Democrats will “crawl over broken glass” to vote against Donald Trump and the Republican Party “could get obliterated at the polls” this November. No, Ted, it’s going to be far, far worse. Donald Trump has provoked voters from all across the political spectrum and ignited a rage in their hearts that will not be quenched by anything as simple as winning an election.
The Democrats are way past that point. Now, they are a rising tidal wave that will scour Republicans from office at every level of government. The opponents of the Republican Party are an elemental force, bent solely on reducing the Republican Party to a mere footnote in history. For Americans in the #TheResistance and #NeverTrump movements, this isn’t just an election anymore. This is a reckoning. This is war. When this is over (and it’s just really getting started), there will not be one stone upon another in memory of the Republican Party.
“Do you see all these things?” he asked. “Truly I tell you, not one stone here will be left on another; every one will be thrown down.”
Liberty is For The Win!