As we look toward the end of the year and the 4th Quarter, the change in political leadership could change the economic landscape, depending on how quickly the Congress and White House can enact whatever policy they plan on pushing forward.
Coupled with a broad base slow down in production and construction, we still appear on track for a recession starting in 3rd quarter or 4th quarter 2016, though it does not appear to be a traditional recession.
The primary drivers for 3rd Quarter or 4th Quarter economic downturn in the United States remain driven by domestic policies.
The bottom line is that while the jobs number for June seems strong, it is accompanied by enough asterisks that excitement over it should be well tempered.
Producers are betting against near term demand so keeping inventories low to avoid depreciation and choosing to stay liquid.
The latest economic report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis came out on January 29th, 2015, and there is simply no spinning it. Real gross domestic product... increased at an annual rate of 0.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015... A 0.7% GDP growth for Quarter 4 (October-December) is not only poor, short of actual negative numbers,... Continue Reading →