The latest helping of government data on jobs and the economy are remarkably rosy, but there are more than a few dark clouds surrounding the silver linings.
As we look toward the end of the year and the 4th Quarter, the change in political leadership could change the economic landscape, depending on how quickly the Congress and White House can enact whatever policy they plan on pushing forward.
With the election upcoming, we've no choice but to wait and see if the bubble economy bursts before or after the election.
Coupled with a broad base slow down in production and construction, we still appear on track for a recession starting in 3rd quarter or 4th quarter 2016, though it does not appear to be a traditional recession.
The primary drivers for 3rd Quarter or 4th Quarter economic downturn in the United States remain driven by domestic policies.
The bottom line is that while the jobs number for June seems strong, it is accompanied by enough asterisks that excitement over it should be well tempered.
A recession is still indicated by Q3 of 2016, as the economy looks to be softening under the continued weight of the Obama Administration regulatory regimen.
There are three big reports on the economy to talk about this month, including the latest Federal Reserve meeting which occurred in the mid-March. Let's get straight to the latest release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Real gross domestic product .. increased at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter of... Continue Reading →